Swiss public health measures associated with reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission using genome data.

Genome sequences from evolving infectious pathogens allow quantification of case introductions and local transmission dynamics. We sequenced 11,357 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes from Switzerland in 2020 - the sixth largest effort globally. Using a representative subset of these data, we estimated viral introductions to Switzerland and their persistence over the course of 2020. We contrasted these estimates with simple null models representing the absence of certain public health measures. We show that Switzerland's border closures de-coupled case introductions from incidence in neighboring countries. Under a simple model, we estimate an 86-98% reduction in introductions during Switzerland's strictest border closures. Furthermore, the Swiss 2020 partial lockdown roughly halved the time for sampled introductions to die out. Last, we quantified local transmission dynamics once introductions into Switzerland occurred, using a phylodynamic model. We found that transmission slowed 35-63% upon outbreak detection in summer 2020, but not in fall. This finding may indicate successful contact tracing over summer before overburdening in fall. The study highlights the added value of genome sequencing data for understanding transmission dynamics.

Early detection and surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 genomic variants in wastewater using COJAC.

The continuing emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants of interest emphasizes the need for early detection and epidemiological surveillance of novel variants. We used genomic sequencing of 122 wastewater samples from three locations in Switzerland to monitor the local spread of B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta) and P.1 (Gamma) variants of SARS-CoV-2 at a population level. We devised a bioinformatics method named COJAC (Co-Occurrence adJusted Analysis and Calling) that uses read pairs carrying multiple variant-specific signature mutations as a robust indicator of low-frequency variants. Application of COJAC revealed that a local outbreak of the Alpha variant in two Swiss cities was observable in wastewater up to 13 d before being first reported in clinical samples. We further confirmed the ability of COJAC to detect emerging variants early for the Delta variant by analysing an additional 1,339 wastewater samples. While sequencing data of single wastewater samples provide limited precision for the quantification of relative prevalence of a variant, we show that replicate and close-meshed longitudinal sequencing allow for robust estimation not only of the local prevalence but also of the transmission fitness advantage of any variant. We conclude that genomic sequencing and our computational analysis can provide population-level estimates of prevalence and fitness of emerging variants from wastewater samples earlier and on the basis of substantially fewer samples than from clinical samples. Our framework is being routinely used in large national projects in Switzerland and the UK.

Quantification of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: In December 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) reported a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VoC) which is now named B.1.1.7. Based on initial data from the UK and later data from other countries, this variant was estimated to have a transmission fitness advantage of around 40-80 % (Volz et al., 2021; Leung et al., 2021; Davies et al., 2021). AIM: This study aims to estimate the transmission fitness advantage and the effective reproductive number of B.1.1.7 through time based on data from Switzerland. METHODS: We generated whole genome sequences from 11.8 % of all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in Switzerland between 14 December 2020 and 11 March 2021. Based on these data, we determine the daily frequency of the B.1.1.7 variant and quantify the variant's transmission fitness advantage on a national and a regional scale. RESULTS: We estimate B.1.1.7 had a transmission fitness advantage of 43-52 % compared to the other variants circulating in Switzerland during the study period. Further, we estimate B.1.1.7 had a reproductive number above 1 from 01 January 2021 until the end of the study period, compared to below 1 for the other variants. Specifically, we estimate the reproductive number for B.1.1.7 was 1.24 [1.07-1.41] from 01 January until 17 January 2021 and 1.18 [1.06-1.30] from 18 January until 01 March 2021 based on the whole genome sequencing data. From 10 March to 16 March 2021, once B.1.1.7 was dominant, we estimate the reproductive number was 1.14 [1.00-1.26] based on all confirmed cases. For reference, Switzerland applied more non-pharmaceutical interventions to combat SARS-CoV-2 on 18 January 2021 and lifted some measures again on 01 March 2021. CONCLUSION: The observed increase in B.1.1.7 frequency in Switzerland during the study period is as expected based on observations in the UK. In absolute numbers, B.1.1.7 increased exponentially with an estimated doubling time of around 2-3.5 weeks. To monitor the ongoing spread of B.1.1.7, our plots are available online.